BRICS or BASIC? For many a year mere mention of the term BRIC has been guaranteed to set South African officials’ teeth grinding.

As the economic powerhouse of sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa has long dreamt of being a global player since the end of apartheid – and been frustrated by the fascination of so many economists with the big four emerging economies, the so-called BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), to the exclusion of South Africa.

Now, however, South Africa is daring to dream again, as is Jacob Zuma, its sometimes controversial leader, who just may have found a compelling geopolitical theme for his nine-month-old presidency.

Much has been made of the dramatic final evening at December’s climate change conference in Copenhagen when Barack Obama paid a call on the Chinese delegation, only to find that a meeting was already under way between Chinese, Brazilian, Indian, and South African leaders.

But while diplomats still speculate as to whether it was the US president or the others who were gate-crashing at a Chinese party, in Africa the scene is remembered for very different reasons: the surprising presence of Mr Zuma alongside the more established global statesmen, Manmohan Singh, Wen Jiabao and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This, African diplomats like to think, was the moment a new international grouping was formed, one that at long last entrenched an African presence at the top table, and held its first meeting, in New Delhi, at the weekend: the BASIC group, Brazil, South Africa, India and China.

One of Mr Zuma’s confidants maintains there was an element of divine providence to the closing Copenhagen ensemble. Supposedly Mr Zuma’s aircraft had to delay its departure because of an iced-over windshield, enabling him to return to the talks for the climax.

Whatever, the excluded European officials were startled. Earlier in the summit they believed Jacob Zuma was amenable to the perspective of the EU nations who were pushing for hard commitments from all big polluters. Instead they found he was firmly with China.

The ever-affable Mr Zuma will no doubt manage to brush off any lasting diplomatic resentment. This, after all, is a man who just a few weeks ago burst into song to put everyone at their ease at the hugely sensitive funeral for Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, the former health minister.

But notwithstanding his reputation as a man who is all things to all people – indeed something of a Zulu Mr Everyman – there is a growing sense that in international affairs he may be more decisive than many anticipated. In particular, it appears he has decided to intensify his predecessor Thabo Mbeki’s more cautious engagement with Beijing.

While Mr Mbeki liked to encourage a “South-South” axis, his drive appeared as much to do with fashioning a lever against the west as a desire for close co-operation with Beijing. Indeed he once cautioned that China should beware of fashioning a “colonial relationship” with Africa.

While he has put off several key decisions at home, Mr Zuma appears to have no such misgivings over China. Shortly before his election last April he waved through a decision to deny a visa to the Dalai Lama. With the reputation of Washington’s economic orthodoxy in disarray, he is paying ever-closer attention to Beijing’s economic record. “The story of the moment is the rise of state capitalism,” says one adviser. “We can’t leave the market to operate on its own.”

The main question for the west is whether South Africa will seek a bridging role in “BASIC”, and will urge China to sign up to binding emissions targets. It does after all have traditionally close ties to Britain and the US.

Officials stoutly insist neither relationship comes at the expense of the other. However, China’s emergence last year as South Africa’s largest trade partner is a straw in the wind.

All the mood music suggests that South Africa will do its damnedest to make sure that, for all the swooning of economists over the BRICS, in diplomacy, BASIC is the grouping to watch.

Source(s): Financial Times